English translation of an article by Prof. Dr. Mehmet Karaçuka, originally published in Seferihisar Yeni Haber on 25 May 2025 under the Turkish title “Doğurganlık Hızımız Neden Düşüyor?.”
President Erdoğan’s remarks yesterday attracted strong criticism from some quarters. He argued, in essence, that as prosperity increases, fertility rates tend to decline for a variety of reasons. Yet the prevailing public perception is almost the opposite: that economic hardship discourages couples from marrying and having children. What, then, does the research tell us? Why do societies choose to have fewer children at particular stages of their development?
First, this is not a phenomenon unique to Turkey. Fertility rates are low in almost every part of the world outside Africa. To maintain a stable population without immigration, a country generally needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1 children per woman. Turkey has been moving below this threshold over the past decade, and the rate is now around 1.5.
This trend suggests that Turkey’s population may decline over the medium and long term, with implications ranging from housing markets to pension payments.
Economic realities underlie many social choices, and the decision to have children is to a large extent influenced by economic considerations. Raising children involves expenses such as food, clothing, healthcare and childcare. As household income increases, these direct expenses become relatively easier to afford, which could encourage couples to have more children.
But this calculation includes only out-of-pocket expenses. It does not capture the full cost of raising a child.
One of the most important concepts in economics is opportunity cost, which must be taken into account when assessing the true cost of a decision. The cost of having children extends to the time and attention parents devote to bringing them up. As societies grow more prosperous, leisure activities and personal interests become increasingly valuable. People may limit the number of children they have because they attach greater value to their time.
For women in particular, having a child can mean temporarily stepping away from employment, which entails both lost income and interruptions to career development. In more developed economies, where women are more integrated into the labor market, such opportunity costs can weigh heavily on fertility decisions.
For these reasons, a negative relationship between economic development and fertility has been observed across societies. Another negative association concerns education. As couples attain higher levels of education, they often choose to have fewer children. Similar opportunity-cost considerations are at work. Furthermore, higher education levels tend to shift parental spending from the number of children toward the quality of investments in each child.
Spending more on organic food or better-quality education, for example, increases the direct costs associated with raising children.
Overall, the global tendency toward lower fertility can be understood partly in terms of economic development. Nevertheless, temporary circumstances can sometimes alter this pattern. The worldwide ‘baby boom’ following 1945 was one such exception. Only time and further scientific research will show whether Turkey’s present situation is temporary or reflects a longer-term structural shift.
Original publication: Seferihisar Yeni Haber — Doğurganlık Hızımız Neden Düşüyor? (25 May 2025).
