Due to its geographical location, Turkey has been a focal point of human and trade flows between East and West for centuries. While this position brings advantages, it is also well-known that it carries the potential for challenges and problems. Our country is no stranger to migration flows. During the decline of the Ottoman Empire, as territories were lost, there was a continuous influx of migrants from the Balkans and the Caucasus. However, it’s worth emphasizing that labeling these migration flows from lost territories as “refugees”—as some do—falls into an anachronistic and erroneous line of thought. Those who came were not external migrants but rather internal ones, predominantly of Turkish descent.
The first wave of migration that was culturally and ethnically foreign to us began with the Syrian war in 2013, when millions of Syrian Arabs spread across our cities in a mass movement—a process that continues to this day. Following the Syrians, millions of Afghans have also dispersed into our cities. A migration wave of this scale, reaching millions in just a decade, would create social, cultural, and economic stress in any country, and significant discontent is indeed observable in ours. Identifying the reasons for this discontent and finding ways to address the current situation are crucial for societal peace and harmony.
Contrary to common belief, migration does not solely bring negative consequences. It also has economic benefits. Some of the people arriving bring capital with them, contributing to economic life through investments in production and/or spending on consumption. Additionally, the incoming population joins the workforce, often taking up jobs and wages that our youth are unwilling to accept, thereby boosting overall welfare. However, this increase in consumption and demand can also lead to inflationary pressures in the short term. Furthermore, with our population growth stagnating and aging—and with the fertility rate dropping to 1.5—the labor shortage is set to worsen, making this influx economically significant.
While economic factors are undoubtedly important, political debates tend to focus on stirring emotions, sidelining economic arguments in favor of emotional ones. At this emotional level, the most prominent arguments revolve around cultural incompatibility and identity. Indeed, few demagogic tools are as powerful as identity and political-cultural belonging. These debates are not unique to us; they unfold on the same terms in Western countries as well. Europe has been receiving migrants for about 60 years, yet even the third and fourth generations of these migrants have not fully integrated. In my view, expecting migrants in our country to integrate within a few generations is overly optimistic. We must shape all our policies while considering the possibility that integration may not occur. It is more likely that, as in Europe, we will see limited interaction between groups, living as parallel communities.
Another significant factor disturbing our society is the perception that refugees receive preferential treatment. Reports that they benefit from free healthcare, pay no taxes, use public services, and disproportionately access child-family and other social assistance programs naturally foster negative sentiments among tax-paying citizens. In my opinion, the most critical task for political authorities lies here. If, as claimed, these migrants are here to stay, there must be no discriminatory practices that offend the public conscience.
Moreover, as in all other areas, upholding the rule of law and ensuring that those who disrupt public order or commit crimes are punished—regardless of who they are—will be a reassuring factor for the public conscience. Whether refugees are present or not, the guarantee of public peace lies in the effective regulation and enforcement of laws. It is evident that the refugee issue will remain a prominent topic in the coming period. Rather than turning it into a source of societal division, it would benefit us all to establish the basic conditions for societal consensus and address the issue within that framework. To achieve this, the matter must be approached rationally and scientifically, free from fanaticism and populism.