Following the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition government in Germany last November, a new parliamentary election will take place this Sunday, February 23. This election coincides with a highly critical period, as both Germany’s economic and political situation and the international landscape—particularly with Trump’s re-election—could significantly reshape Europe’s political and economic structure for decades to come.

The candidate with the highest vote potential is Friedrich Merz of the center-right CDU/CSU. It remains unclear whether the second-largest party will be the current coalition’s major partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), or the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, in most public opinion polls, AfD is ahead of the historically dominant SPD. Meanwhile, BSW, Die Linke, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) are hovering around the 5% threshold. The newly founded BSW appears likely to surpass the 5% electoral barrier, whereas Die Linke and FDP face significant risks of falling below it. If these smaller parties enter parliament, coalition negotiations will inevitably shift, as no single party seems capable of securing a parliamentary majority on its own.

Among potential coalition scenarios, a “Grand Coalition” between the center-right CDU/CSU and center-left SPD is being considered. However, it remains uncertain whether these two historically significant parties can secure a majority. Depending on the circumstances, the Greens or BSW could also join this coalition. Coalition talks could take a long time, and the new government may struggle to gain public support. This is largely due to the considerable political wear and tear suffered by the SPD and the public’s dissatisfaction with the previous three-party coalition, making voters hesitant about another tripartite government.

The only party completely excluded from these coalition calculations is the far-right AfD. All other parties have explicitly stated that they will not engage in coalition discussions with AfD. With AfD expected to secure around 20% of the vote, the strategy of ignoring the party remains the primary approach among German policymakers. However, this also means disregarding the will of millions of voters. While this may not pose an insurmountable challenge at the parliamentary level, it could lead to significant social and electoral tensions.

As Europe’s largest economy, Germany has been grappling with stagnation over the past four years, and this trend is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. In addition to economic struggles, key political fault lines include external threats such as the war in Ukraine and Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, Trump’s stance on NATO and defense funding, as well as his trade policies, which could introduce new tariff wars. Domestically, migration policies and the issue of immigrants remain central concerns in German politics.